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Crypto Fundamental Analysis
The Strange Journey of Bitcoin Halving
What is Bitcoin halving? And what is its real impact on the market historically?
Let’s understand the topic calmly… without exaggeration and without false promises
2026-03-17
What is Bitcoin halving? And what is its real impact on the market historically?
Halving always causes controversy
Some people say: that’s it, bull run
Some people say: the price already front-ran the event and some people say: the cycle is over
Let’s understand the topic calmly… without exaggeration and without false promises
Some people say: the price already front-ran the event and some people say: the cycle is over
Let’s understand the topic calmly… without exaggeration and without false promises
💥 What is halving (Bitcoin Halving)?
Halving is an event that happens approximately every 4 years on the Bitcoin network.
In this event:
The block mining reward of Bitcoin is cut in half, meaning the new supply of Bitcoin decreases by 50% because Bitcoin’s only source is mining
A simple example:
If the miner was taking 10 Bitcoin, after halving he will take only 5.
Meaning:
✔️ the same effort
✔️ the same electricity
✔️ the same network
But less production. And this puts pressure on the supply side (Supply Shock).
In this event:
The block mining reward of Bitcoin is cut in half, meaning the new supply of Bitcoin decreases by 50% because Bitcoin’s only source is mining
A simple example:
If the miner was taking 10 Bitcoin, after halving he will take only 5.
Meaning:
✔️ the same effort
✔️ the same electricity
✔️ the same network
But less production. And this puts pressure on the supply side (Supply Shock).
Why is halving important?
Scarcity and supply
Because Bitcoin is originally built on scarcity.
Total supply = only 21 million Bitcoin
Every halving:
reduces the rate of Bitcoin issuance
increases scarcity
reduces the network’s internal inflation
But…
Does that mean an immediate rise? History says: no.
Total supply = only 21 million Bitcoin
Every halving:
reduces the rate of Bitcoin issuance
increases scarcity
reduces the network’s internal inflation
But…
Does that mean an immediate rise? History says: no.
📊 The first halving – 2012
Price behavior in 2012
A year before the halving: a rise of about 670%
(Many people call it a simple rise at the time, because the market was still very small)
Right before the halving:
a 50% drop
After the halving:
a sideways period of about 50 days
Then a price explosion that reached about 10000%
A bull run lasted about a year and a half and broke the all-time high
Halving doesn’t start the rise immediately… but it is part of the cycle.
(Many people call it a simple rise at the time, because the market was still very small)
Right before the halving:
a 50% drop
After the halving:
a sideways period of about 50 days
Then a price explosion that reached about 10000%
A bull run lasted about a year and a half and broke the all-time high
Halving doesn’t start the rise immediately… but it is part of the cycle.
📊 The second halving – 2016
Price behavior in 2016
A year and a half before the halving: a rise of about 390%
Before the event: a 28% drop
After the halving: an additional drop that reached 40%
Then a bull run launch with a rise of about 4000%
And it lasted about a year and a half
Notice something important: after the halving there was a drop before the rise.
This is a point people always forget to account for.
Before the event: a 28% drop
After the halving: an additional drop that reached 40%
Then a bull run launch with a rise of about 4000%
And it lasted about a year and a half
Notice something important: after the halving there was a drop before the rise.
This is a point people always forget to account for.
📊 The third halving – 2020
Price behavior in 2020
A year and a half before the halving: a rise of 342%
Before the event: a 63% drop (the famous Corona candle)
After the halving: a sideways period of 66 days then a rise of about 700%
A bull run lasted a year and a half
Still the same pattern تقريبًا: sideways → accumulation → launch.
Before the event: a 63% drop (the famous Corona candle)
After the halving: a sideways period of 66 days then a rise of about 700%
A bull run lasted a year and a half
Still the same pattern تقريبًا: sideways → accumulation → launch.
📊 The fourth halving – the current and different one
What’s different in the fourth halving
The fourth halving was a bit different.
After it we saw: an immediate rise of about 60%
But less than the previous cycles
And after that, for the first time the price breaks the halving low
And this is a very important historical point.
For the first time after a halving: the price breaks its low.
Does that mean the cycle is over?
Or did the market just become more complex?
After it we saw: an immediate rise of about 60%
But less than the previous cycles
And after that, for the first time the price breaks the halving low
And this is a very important historical point.
For the first time after a halving: the price breaks its low.
Does that mean the cycle is over?
Or did the market just become more complex?
Has Bitcoin already made its top?
The market has changed
This is the most important question.
History says: every cycle had a bull run after the halving
And it lasted about a year and a half
But the market is bigger now
There are institutions
There is ETF
There is different liquidity
And there are regulatory interventions
So it’s not logical to expect the same huge old percentages.
But at the same time:
Breaking the halving low doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the cycle.
History says: every cycle had a bull run after the halving
And it lasted about a year and a half
But the market is bigger now
There are institutions
There is ETF
There is different liquidity
And there are regulatory interventions
So it’s not logical to expect the same huge old percentages.
But at the same time:
Breaking the halving low doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the cycle.
Is there still a bigger rise before the next halving?
A direct answer in the WolfCharts style
No one can be certain.
But we can say: ✔️ if the cycle is still running
You will see restructuring and accumulation before a bigger launch
✔️ if the cycle ended, the market will enter a deep correction longer than usual
The important thing: capital management is more important than predicting the top.
And more important than that, your analysis should be based on a clear technical reading, not a feeling…
And not the word of analysts on Twitter or TikTok.
No one can be certain.
But we can say: ✔️ if the cycle is still running
You will see restructuring and accumulation before a bigger launch
✔️ if the cycle ended, the market will enter a deep correction longer than usual
The important thing: capital management is more important than predicting the top.
And more important than that, your analysis should be based on a clear technical reading, not a feeling…
And not the word of analysts on Twitter or TikTok.
At WolfCharts we explain
At WolfCharts we explain:
How to read the price structure
How to identify liquidity
How to differentiate between a real break and a fake one
How to build an entry model with a calculated risk ratio
And how to enter the market with a respectable return vs a disciplined risk
All of this I explain in the courses
And you can start seeing a large part of them for free from here 👇
🔗 https://www.youtube.com/@WolfCharts/courses
If your goal is to trade and scalp in a difficult market like the crypto market
Then you must have a system… not a prediction.
How to read the price structure
How to identify liquidity
How to differentiate between a real break and a fake one
How to build an entry model with a calculated risk ratio
And how to enter the market with a respectable return vs a disciplined risk
All of this I explain in the courses
And you can start seeing a large part of them for free from here 👇
🔗 https://www.youtube.com/@WolfCharts/courses
If your goal is to trade and scalp in a difficult market like the crypto market
Then you must have a system… not a prediction.
📅 Upcoming halving dates
Next halvings
🔹 The fifth halving: 2030
🔹 The sixth halving: 2034
🔹 The seventh halving: 2038
🔹 The eighth halving: 2042
Every 4 years… supply decreases.
And the market reprices.
🔹 The sixth halving: 2034
🔹 The seventh halving: 2038
🔹 The eighth halving: 2042
Every 4 years… supply decreases.
And the market reprices.
Is halving alone enough for a rise?
Halving is important but it’s not the only factor
No.
The market is not mechanical.
Halving:
An important factor
But not the only one
There are other factors:
Global liquidity
Monetary policy
Interest rates
Risk appetite
Institutional entry
Who focuses only on halving… sees half the picture.
The market is not mechanical.
Halving:
An important factor
But not the only one
There are other factors:
Global liquidity
Monetary policy
Interest rates
Risk appetite
Institutional entry
Who focuses only on halving… sees half the picture.
Mr Bebo
Mr Bebo is a financial markets analyst and trader with more than 7 years of experience across forex, equities, and crypto markets. He provides a specialized trading methodology through a comprehensive 3-level course designed to master SMC concepts. He has also developed his own approach based on new practical concepts that help improve entry points and build a more professional and profitable trading style.
Over the past 3 years, he has trained more than 600 students in trading and financial market understanding through both free and paid educational content.